(CNN) -- You know the classic definition of inflation? "Too much money chasing too few goods." Well, off-year elections provide fertile ground for a different kind of inflation: too many political pundits chasing too few items of significance. So here's an effort to sort out the pretense of significance from results that may actually mean something a year -- or three -- from now.1. In off-years, almost all politics really is localFormer House Speaker Tip O'Neill's maxim that "all politics is local" is way overrated as a guide to what happens. Sometimes national and international events far outweigh local concerns: President Bush's re-election was rooted in the voters' conclusion -- by a narrow margin, to be sure -- that he represented a better leader in the fight against terror than did John Kerry. But in a governor's or mayor's race, matters such as property taxes, the state of education, and crime really do matter most. Republicans lost the Virginia governor's race four years ago, but there was no fallout in the congressional or presidential elections that followed. And if there's anyone who thinks national Republicans can take much heart from New York Mayor Bloomberg's re-election, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to sell -- unless Bloomberg bought that as part of his campaign. Which reminds me ....2. It's money that matters -- more than everWe don't really know how much of his $5 billion fortune Bloomberg spent on his re-election. The ballpark figure is $70 million (speaking of which, it was a big help to Mike that his clumsy and obsessive push for a new football stadium and the 2012 Olympics ended in failure last spring, giving New Yorkers time to forget). But at more than $100 a vote, it reminds us of how many really, really rich folks there are in politics. In New Jersey, John Corzine ($300 million net worth) beat Republican Doug Forrester, a piker at $50 million. Outgoing Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, who apparently has visions of 1600 Pennsylvania dancing in his head, is worth upwards of $200 million. California Gov Schwarzenegger put some of his $100 million into the 2003 recall and into his unsuccessful fight for ballot propositions. More and more, the political arena seems like the world's most pricey private club.3. It takes a busload of faith to get byThe race for Virginia's governor will have Democrats sifting through the results like an Alaskan prospector. Why? Because the victor, Democrat Tim Kaine, may have provided a lesson on the "faith and values" front. At a time when only 29 percent of voters see Democrats as "friendly to religion," as opposed to 55 percent who see Republicans that way, Kaine ran by openly talking about his religious faith. He went on Christian radio and embraced the conversation that so many secular Democrats seem either unfamiliar or uncomfortable with. Moreover, it gave Kaine a frame in which to put his views against capital punishment, ordinarily a kiss of political death in a hard-line state like Virginia. When you remember that the only successful Democratic presidential contenders in the past 45 years -- Carter and Clinton -- both were immersed in the language of faith, it holds out the promise that economic liberals with a grounding in traditional religious beliefs may be able to win back culturally conservative Democrats.4. Fading fear of Ah-noldEarlier this year I went out to Sacramento to investigate the "Ah-nold" phenomenon. The bodybuilder-turned-actor-turned-candidate had swept to victory in the recall that ousted Gov. Gray Davis, and his popularity was above 70 percent in opinion polls. Schwarzenegger believed, as did many Democrats, that this gave him enormous clout with the Democratic legislature. He could, he and they believed, threaten to take his case directly to voters through the ballot initiative if the legislature did not follow his led on spending and other matters. Well, last Tuesday voters rejected every one of the governor's proposals: curb spending, toughen teacher tenure, take redistricting away from the legislature, and make pubic employee unions get permission from individual members to spend their dues on politics. The consequence? Ah-nold is no longer in a position to echo Ronald Reagan's famous observation/threat that if legislators don't see the light maybe they'll feel the heat. And this, in turn, means that the structural, seemingly intractable fiscal dilemma of California -- with Democrats frozen on spending cuts and Republicans frozen on tax increases -- will remain for the foreseeable future. With Schwarzenegger up for re-election next year, and with Democrats smelling blood, the idea of some kind of grand compromise seems farther away than ever.5. Less than met the eyeLate in the New Jersey campaign, the Forrester forces aired TV ads quoting the ex-wife of John Corzine. She said that he'd let his family down and he'd probably let New Jersey down, too.This, many political types felt, was a potential blockbuster: it would peel women away from Corzine on the primal ground that they world see him as a bad husband and father. And without women, Democrats don't win. Polls in the last weekend showed a sharp drop in Corzine's support; and there was a wide belief that many women represented a "hidden vote" -- unwilling to tell pollsters they were deserting a Democrat on such grounds. Well, Corzine won by a double-digit margin. Lesson for next year? When insiders excitedly read entrails and tell you that their insights let them foresee the behavior of voters, tell them to try the decaf and back off.